Presidental Betting

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Yesterday morning, I was having a conversation with a dear friend of mine in another state. She asked me if there was a lot of betting on coronavirus situations. I replied that I thought the upcoming elections were probably generating more action.

She replied, “Isn’t it illegal to gamble on political elections in the United States?”

I’m not sure I knew, so I thought I’d do some research.

Here’s what I learned about whether you can gamble on elections in the United States:

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  • Bovada – 100% welcome bonus up to $250
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Want a little more info? Jump ahead and learn more about the latest election betting odds and lines.

Betting on United States Elections Isn’t a New Thing

Betting on presidential elections has a long and notorious history in the United States.

And just like the sports betting scene, the action on Presidential elections can be thought of as a marketplace.

From shortly after the Civil War until shortly after World War II, markets for betting on the presidential election were big and efficient. Not only that, but the favorites in betting markets also tended to win elections.

Why has betting on presidential elections become less prominent over the last few decades?

I’d contend that it probably hasn’t, really. It’s now more of an underground betting activity conducted with offshore sportsbooks. Previously, betting on presidential elections was an organized activity – even when it was illegal.

But we do have access to more betting opportunities than ever before. Also, modern scientific polling has replaced some of the interest in betting markets and their predictions for who’s going to be the next President of the United States.

Historically, so-called betting commissioners managed these betting markets and used standard contracts for that purpose. Sometimes you’d see more money betting on elections than were being put into action on stocks and bonds.

In the late 19th and early 20th century, you could get daily odds from various newspapers for at least a month before the election.

The most significant election, in terms of dollars wagered, was the election of 1916. Bettors wagered over $165 million on that contest. (Those dollars have been adjusted for inflation.)

Betting Markets Have Historically Been Good at Predicting Winners

The betting markets on elections in New York City almost always predicted an election’s winner. In fact, the market was also a good predictor of whether a vote was going to be close.

The favorite in these betting markets won almost three out of four times over 50 years. That’s even more impressive when you consider that the practice of conducting scientific polls didn’t begin until the 1930s.

Much of the historical information related to election betting markets between the end of the Civil War and the first half of the 20th century can be found in more detail in a paper on historical prediction markets written by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf.

The conclusion so far, though, is that regardless of the legalities involved, people have been able to bet on presidential elections in the United States for a long time.

And, before polling became standard, betting markets were the de facto means of predicting election outcomes and were remarkably accurate.

Betting Political Elections Is Illegal Throughout the United States

Betting on sports used to be illegal almost everywhere, but over the last couple of years, legislation has loosened up regarding betting on sports.

People also bet on entertainment events like who’s going to win the Oscars, although that kind of betting isn’t as prevalent and isn’t legal in as many states.

Presidential Betting Polls

But betting on political elections is illegal throughout the United States.

This doesn’t mean it’s illegal everywhere. The United Kingdom has always been more open-minded about gambling than the United States, and bets on political events are still common there.

And some bookmakers in other countries are happy to take action from U.S. citizens regardless of the legality in the bettor’s jurisdiction.

Why Is It Illegal to Bet on Elections in the United States?

One of the concerns related to betting on sports is that it might corrupt the integrity of the sport. The Black Sox Scandal in 1919 is a classic example, although it seems to me that outlawing sports betting has done little to prevent such activity.

Everyone I know bets on sports, either with a local bookmaker, an online sportsbook, or both.

There’s a big difference, though.

With sports, the big concern is that bettors will bribe athletes to lose on purpose. In fact, countless movies have been made about boxers who were bribed to throw a match.

With political betting, though, the concern relates more to the effect that betting on elections might have on voter turnout.

Think about it.

If your candidate is a massive longshot, according to the bookmakers, you might be less likely to show up and vote – ensuring that your candidate will lose.

I think this is a lousy argument for making election betting illegal, though.

Polls might easily have the same effect, but, as far as I know, no one has suggested we ban polling.

And, even though you can’t legally bet on an election in the United States, the bookmakers in other countries are still taking action. It’s easy to find out what the odds are for your favorite candidate.

I’m not optimistic that the legal restrictions on political betting in the United States are going to change anytime soon.

I’ve been watching the gambling industry in the United States for a couple of decades now, and if I’ve learned anything, it’s this:

Changes in gambling laws happen SLOWLY.

How to Bet on the Presidential Election Anyway

First, I’m no lawyer. I don’t even play one on television. I have no idea what the legal risks are when it comes to betting on presidential elections.

But if you’re determined to bet on the presidential election anyway, I can offer some suggestions.

  1. Your first option is to find a likeminded individual who’s willing to bet with you. This should be someone you know and trust who won’t stiff you. Betting with such a person eliminates the vig, which is the amount that the sportsbook charges you to place a bet.
  2. Your second option is to find an online sportsbook operating from another country that’s willing to take action from a United States citizen on the election. Many such businesses exist.

As far as choosing the best political betting site is concerned, pay close attention to the bookmaker’s reputation. You’re talking about transferring money to and from a company that’s operating in an at-best grey legal area.

Such sportsbooks claim that the action they’re taking is governed by the jurisdiction where they operate. Presumably, it’s legal there to bet on such activities. United States prosecutors have a different attitude, which is why people like Calvin Ayre are hard to find.

The point is that you need to be comfortable that the book is going to pay you off if and when you win your bets. Some offshore sportsbooks are notorious for stiffing their customers.

Once you find such a sportsbook, you’ll need to find a way to get money to and from the company.

In today’s gambling environment, probably the best way to accomplish that is via cryptocurrency like bitcoin.

Once you’ve established an account at such a company and funded it, actually placing the bet is just a matter of finding the wager you want to make, inputting the amount you wish to wager, and pointing and clicking.

Odds on the 2020 US Presidential Election

Odds at MyBookie

  • Joe Biden (-155)
  • Donald Trump (+115)
  • Kamala Harris (+1500)
  • Mike Pence (+10000)
  • Anyone Else (+35000)

Visit MyBookie

Odds at Bovada

  • Joe Biden (-165)
  • Donald Trump (+125)
  • Kamala Harris (+7500)
  • Mike Pence (+7500)

Visit Bovada

Odds at BetOnline

  • Joe Biden (-180)
  • Donald Trump (+160)
  • Kamala Harris (+10000)
  • Mike Pence (+10000)
  • Jo Jorgensen (+50000)

Visit BetOnline

It’s no secret that offshore sportsbooks take action on presidential elections. I see the odds being published and updated regularly on various news sites.

So let’s look at recent odds for the presidential election at BetOnline.ag has Joe Biden at -180 and Donald Trump at +160. You could also bet on Hillary Clinton at +6000.

The -180 odds on Joe Biden mean that if you bet $180 on Biden winning, you win $100 if he wins the election.

The +160 odds on Donald Trump mean that if you bet $100 on Trump winning, you win $160 if he wins the election.

The minus sign indicates that he’s the favorite, so that’s the amount you must risk to win $100.

Hillary Clinton is clearly a longshot, so if you wager $100 on her winning, and she somehow pulls it off, you’d win $600.

Even with 60 to 1 odds, though, I think betting on Hillary is a sucker bet.

Conclusion

Can you gamble on elections in the United States?

Sure, people have been doing so for decades.

But it isn’t legal to take action on such wagers.

My advice is to obey the law, but if you want to put a little money down on the next presidential election, at least only risk money you can afford to lose – especially if you’re betting with an offshore sportsbook rather than a buddy of yours.

The results of the presidential election could sway the fate of millions of Americans. But that’s not what we’re here to think about. Instead, we’re here to learn how to bet on the 2020 presidential election online – and win.

In 2016, President Trump won and created a solid profit for many bettors who backed him. And if you wager correctly this time around, you could get really rich, too! And that’s why this article is here – to show you a betting strategy that can improve your chances of winning.

In this article, I’ll be taking a look at the best 2020 presidential election betting sites, and I’ll be revealing a few strategies, tips, and tools that will help you place better bets.

Best Presidential Election Betting Sites

BetOnline is a U.S. sports betting site that’s good for political betting. It has a great layout, good early lines, and fast payouts.

Sign up today and grab a 100% welcome bonus when you make your first deposit up to $1,000.

BetWay is one of the most impressive and reputable European betting sites that can be accessed in the states. You can bet on all the major sports, as well as some niche ones, and there’s a separate section for political betting, including the US presidential election.

Sign up today and grab a 100% matched deposit bonus on your first deposit up to $200.

Easily the U.S.’s premier sports betting site, Bovada is hard to beat when it comes to political odds and futures. Futures odds often change by the minute, and Bovada offers some of the most competitive odds around.

Sign up today and grab a 50% welcome bonus when you make your first deposit up to $250.

Betting On The Presidential Election: Full Guide

Presidential Betting Odds In Las Vegas

Helpful Stats & Facts For Betting On The Presidential Election

  • Only 13 Presidents have completed two terms
  • Joe Biden is the oldest candidate to be elected as a first-term president
  • There have only ever been two presidents who were also divorcees – Ronald Reagan and President Trump
  • Only two presidents have ever won 49 out of 50 states
  • You can win the popular vote but lose the election, and this has happened four times so far
  • Donald Trump raised $512.2m during his 2016 election. Hilary Clinton raised $1,068.1m and still lost
  • Ohio has voted for the winner every single time bar one since 1944

The Most Popular Types of Presidential Election Bets

There are only twos type of bets you can place:

With a moneyline wager, you’re wagering on one of two possible outcomes. For example, you might wager on the winning party, or you might wager on Joe Biden to win the 2020 popular vote. Or, you might bet on electoral college votes, such as either Biden or Trump to win 400+.

Props betting is a little more interesting because you bet on all kinds of things, including who will be X’s running mate, how long a televised debate will last, how many times a candidate might say a specific word during a debate, and so on.

A prop bet might look like this:

Will Donald Trump be impeached before the 2020 elections?

  • Yes (+175)

Vegas Presidential Odds 2020

  • No (-250)

US Presidential Election Betting Strategy

Presidential Betting Odds John Stossel

It’s not easy to predict who’ll win the 2020 election. And because you only have two candidates to choose from, it would seem that you haven’t got much room for maneuver.

The best way to play this, therefore, is to play the electoral betting odds.

What do I mean by this?

Essentially, this is a form of arbitrage betting which requires you to back a candidate and then lay them later on.

Presidential Betting Line 2020

Here’s what I mean:

When a candidate is an outsider according to the latest presidential election odds, now is a good time to back them. Then, as the campaign gets underway and their odds shorten, you can lay them via a betting exchange.

What does “lay a bet” mean?

This is when you use a betting exchange, such as BetDaq, to wager on something not to happen.

By backing a candidate when they’re an outsider, before laying them when their odds have shortened, you can guarantee yourself a profit no matter what happens.

Tips For Betting On The Presidential Elections

Watch Out For Strange Promises

Anyone who makes extravagant promises that the general public knows they’re not going to keep isn’t going to win. For example, over in the UK, the opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn, told everyone his party would provide free broadband for everyone in the coming years. The public saw this as a desperate attempt to secure their vote – and it didn’t work.

Watch The Misery Index

The Misery Index measures economic misery and combines the sum of the percentage inflation rate + the percentage unemployment rate. If it rises during a president’s first term, said president tends not to land a second term.

Unfortunately for Trump, COVID-19 has caused mass unemployment in the United States.

Watch the S&P

If the S%P 500 does really well during the end of July and the end of October, the current president tends to secure another term.

Presidental Betting

On the other hand, if the stock market tumbles during that period, the opposition party usually gets in.

That said, COVID-19 has really skewered the numbers this year, so that’s something else to bear in mind.

Final Word

Political betting can be a lot of fun when you do the right things. Use the tips in this article to improve your chances of winning in this year’s election. Remember never to bet more than you can afford to lose and always bet with your head and never your heart.

Don’t forget to let me know how you get on in the comments below!