How To Make Odds For Betting
When betting the spread, you get odds of -110. Sometimes, sportsbooks will offer a -105 line as a promotion or to welcome new business. But for the most part, if you’re betting the spread, you’re getting -110. We draw that 52.4% break even number right out of the odds.110 is equivalent to 11/10. The evolution of exchange betting has revolutionised market-making to such a degree that even the biggest bookmaker names no longer employ professional odds setters. How did odds making start? As touched on in our Brief History of Betting blog, the concept of calculating the likely chance of a winner in a horse race, and converting that into. The times I really like are when my odds are very different from what is posted. A big difference between what I think the price should be and what it is could mean serious value, and as a bettor there is nothing I like more. Making your own lines can sound intimidating and difficult, but it really doesn’t have to be.
Without question, the single most valuable part of my handicapping process – regardless of what sport I am handicapping – is when I make my own lines. Before I look at the lines that the sports books are offering I determine what I think a fair number would be. I don’t have the resources available to me that oddsmakers do, so it’s not often that I am exactly right once I compare my numbers to the real ones. Most times, though, I am roughly in the ballpark. Those aren’t the interesting cases, though. The times I really like are when my odds are very different from what is posted. A big difference between what I think the price should be and what it is could mean serious value, and as a bettor there is nothing I like more.
Making your own lines can sound intimidating and difficult, but it really doesn’t have to be. Here’s a look at the process I use:
Pick a winner – I like to set my lines before I have done a lot of really serious handicapping. If you are a handicapper then you probably follow at least a few sports well enough that you have a basic sense of how teams match up. In most cases you have a feeling of who is going to win. That’s the starting point.
How strong is that feeling? – The next step is to decide whether you think that team has a really good chance of winning, or whether the game is a toss up. Obviously, the better the chance a team has to win, the bigger the spread will be, or the lower the payoff for a moneyline bet. I don’t spend much time on this step – or any of them – so I am more interested in a general feeling than a scientific conclusion.
What special factors are involved? – Once I have gotten a basic feeling for the game I look to see if there is anything that will significantly change my view of the game – a newly injured player or a star returning from injury, for example.
What’s my line? – Once I have picked a winner, decided how good I feel about it, and seen if any other factors will impact the game it’s time to set a line. I don’t get too scientific here – speed is important because you want to be able to get through all of the games quickly. If I have a feeling that a team will win, but it’s close I will just call the line -100, and not worry if it should be -115 or -120 instead. Small differences like that don’t matter – you just want to have a sense of the basic neighborhood that the odds belong in.
How does that compare to the real line? – Once I have my line I compare to what is posted at one of the sports books. Because I am not too worried about setting a really tight line I don’t worry about a game if my line is -110 and the posted line is +105 or -125. In a case like that the game sets up pretty much like I thought it should, and there probably isn’t a lot of value to be had. I might find more if I handicap closer, but I likely won’t bother unless I have a lot of time. What I am far more interested in is a situation with a big gap between my line and the real one. If my line is -150 and the actual line is +150 then I have some real interest in looking closer.
How To Odds Work
Have I made a mistake? – When I do find a game that has much more attractive odds than I would have guessed then the first step is to look at something that I have missed that could account for the change. A quick Google search usually takes care of that. I don’t get too detailed here – I just want to make sure that I haven’t missed something glaring.
Handicap further – It only takes a minute or two to set a line for each game, so you can run through the whole slate of games for a day in no time. Once I have found games where my line differs significantly from the posted line I have a starting point to go deeper. These are the games I handicap more closely to see if the value I saw at first glance holds up under closer scrutiny. Often times they don’t, but they quite often do as well, and when they do you have a whole lot of value. I love value.
.png "How to make odds for betting odds")
