Blackjack Casino Odds
Blackjack is the world’s most popular card game. You will find it in almost every physical casino and online casino in the world. Its simple rules make it easy to understand and fun to play, whether you’re an expert player or a complete beginner. Blackjack - What Are the Odds? Plus articles and information on Casino-Gambling Boxing news, reviews, articles, interviews and forum. Start a free email account, homepage or even your own journal.
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Blackjack odds are percentage figures which represent your probability of losing or winning a hand. They can also represent the house edge or their profit margins as well. Usually probability odds don't mean much on the short term, but they clearly average out in the long term and this is why the casinos always win over the long term.
We decided to make a few tables and charts of the most common blackjack probability odds for various scenarios and situations found while playing blackjack. The most important odds percentage represents the dealer's edge in the game. This is the long term advantage that they have which will eventually take your money away. Blackjack is actually one of the most popular games in the casino and also has some of the lowest odds of all the casino games, except casino craps of course. Generally their edge ranges from 1% to 15% depending on what variation of blackjack you are playing.
How to Beat the Casino House Odds
There is one feature that makes blackjack more desirable than any other casino game. There is actually a way to beat the house edge by increasing your odds. In fact, your probability odds in blackjack can be increase to the point where you would actually be making the profit in the long term, essentially turning the casino into a personal ATM. This practice is known as card counting and casinos don't like this because they know they will be losing money.
Before you start card counting, you should learn 'blackjack basic strategy', which is the mathematically correct way to play every move in blackjack to get the best odds. This can lower the house edge to less than 1 percent. When that percentage goes to a negative number such as -1%, then it is you who has the edge over the casino. This is when you complement basic strategy with card counting to get the highest efficiencies.
Odds vs. Dealer Up Card
The first odds chart shows what kind of advantage the player has vs. the dealer based on what his up card is showing. The first column in the chart is what card the dealer has showing after the cards have been dealt. The second column of the table shows the dealer's probability of going bust based on each card. The last column shows the advantage the player has and the probability of winning based on the basic strategy theory. As you can see, the dealer has about a 43% chance of going bust when he has a 5 showing as an up card. At the same time, the player has about 23% advantage as well. Notice that the player advantage goes negative when the 10 cards and ace start showing up. This means the player is more likely to lose.
| Dealer's Up Card | Dealer Odds of Busting | Player Advantage Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| 10 | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| J | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| Q | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Blackjack odds of Busting While Taking a Hit
This chart shows the probabilities of going bust after taking a hit. Busting means that your card total would go over 21 points and would be a hard total as well. The highest score you can get when being initially dealt two cards is 21 points so you can never go bust. This means if you took a hit on a hard 21, you would have a 100% probablity of going bust, which is common sense. Also, if you have 11 points or less, it is impossible to go over 21 points on the next hit and your odds of going bust would be 0 percent.
| Total Hand Value | Probability of Going Bust |
|---|---|
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or less | 0% |
House Advantage with Multiple Number of Decks
The number of 52 card decks in a game of blackjack influences the house edge. In some cases, the odds increase in favor of the casino when more decks are used. The advantage edge can be as much as 1% towards the casino and this is a big number in terms of odds over the long term. As you can see here, a single deck of card gives the lowest edge for the casino and gives the player better odds. Multiple decks such as eight decks increases the house edge almost 18 times more than it would for the single deck!
| Number of Decks | House Odds Advantage |
|---|---|
| Single Deck | 0.04% |
| Double Deck | 0.42% |
| Four Decks | 0.61% |
| Six Decks | 0.67% |
| Eight Decks | 0.70% |
Two Card Frequency Odds
The next odds table deals with the first two cards being dealt or the 2 card frequency odds. Every player is dealt two cards at the beginning of a round of blackjack so this chart tells you the percentage of getting different categories of hands. A natural blackjack is only 4.8%, which essentially is an ace dealt with a ten card straight off the initial deal. Normally the odds are 3 to 2 and you would win $3 for every $2 wagered. It's a small percentage but it's the most desirable hand to get. The lowest hand you can get is two points (two aces). This is part of the decision hands group where players are usually dealt soft hands and can make decisions without going bust. This group is the most common.
The other category is the hard standing hands. These hands are somewhat desirable because of the high scores likely to beat the dealer. These are the second most frequent two card blackjack hands. Finally there is a no bust two card hand. No bust means any two card hand that won't bust on the next hit, such as any soft hand or hard hand that is 11 points or less.
| Two Card Combination | Frequency Percentage |
|---|---|
| Natural 21 Blackjack | 4.8% |
| Hard Standing (17 - 20) | 30.0% |
| Decision Hands (2-16) | 38.7% |
| No Bust | 26.5% |
| Total (all two card hands) | 100% |
Probability Edge for Each Card Removed from Deck
The next table shows how much your odds improve after when certain cards have been dealt and removed from the deck. Certain cards taken out of the deck and increase or decrease your blackjack odds percentage and the house edge.
This is very important for card counting. If you want the absolute perfect odds in card counting, you have to acount for each small change in the odds whenever a card is dealt. As you can see from the table, when small cards are taken out of play, the odds increase in your favor overall. This is a paramount property of card counting. The opposite happens when large cards are dealt. Your odds begin to decrease. When you are counting cards, you will notice your count decreasing when large cards are dealt.
You can imagine how complicated it would be to be adding these numbers in your head while card counting at the same time. If your mind was a computer, it would be easier to keep track of the percentage. Some people can do this, and this is the way to become a perfect card counter! It is easier to keep track of the odds when playing with a single blackjack deck. For example, when five cards are seen on the table, they offer a 0.67% increase in your advantage. In fact, when a lot of fives are used up, your odds will be much higher than if any of the other low cards were used up, even the six point cards. Also, these effects are cumulative so you always need to keep track of the odds after every card is dealt. This data is actually quite amazing!
| Removed Card | Effect on Odds |
|---|---|
| 2 | 0.40% |
| 3 | 0.43% |
| 4 | 0.52% |
| 5 | 0.67% |
| 6 | 0.45% |
| 7 | 0.30% |
| 8 | 0.01% |
| 9 | -0.15% |
| 10 | -0.51% |
| Jack | -0.51% |
| Queen | -0.51% |
| King | -0.51% |
| Ace | -0.59% |
Dealer Final Hand Probability Odds
This next table shows the odds of what the dealer's final hand will be. Usually in blackjack, the dealer must hit on 16 and stand on 17. These rules are slightly different for other variations of twenty-one. So generally, the odds of the dealer's final score being 16 are 0% because he must hit. This table will show the probability of the dealer busting or getting a non-bust hand as well as natural blackjacks.
| Dealer Final Hand | Probability of Getting Final Hand |
|---|---|
| Natural Blackjack | 4.82% |
| 21 (more than 2 cards) | 7.36% |
| 20 | 17.58% |
| 19 | 13.48% |
| 18 | 13.81% |
| 17 | 14.58% |
| Non-Bust (less than 21) | 71.63% |
| Bust (more than 21) | 28.37% |
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| Hand Value | Probability of Going Bust % |
|---|---|
| 11 | 0% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 21 | 100% |
How To Play Blackjack To Win
- Be Aware Of House Edge - Both land-based and online casinos will always have at least a small edge over you, the player. This is simply the nature of the beast and is one of the reasons why you’ll never see a casino going out of business. For example, you’ll have to play first. Therefore, if you go bust, you’ll automatically lose the hand even if the dealer goes bust two seconds after you. Make sure you understand all aspects of the house edge before you start playing.
- Different Variations = Different Rules - Don’t just assume that because you’re playing blackjack all of the rules will be the same as the standard version. If you go in with that mindset it will be a recipe for disaster. There are far too many versions to list here. However, the games you’re most likely to encounter are Blackjack Surrender, Atlantic City Blackjack, Double Exposure Blackjack, and a few others.
- Blackjack Strategies - As with all games, there are several betting systems on the market claiming to give you a better chance of winning. First of all, forget counting cards. Not only is it against house rules but you basically have to be a math genius in order to work out the percentages. However, there are certain legal strategies which can increase your chances - such as basic blackjack strategy. You can also use cheat sheets since the dealer can’t see you.
Blackjack Tips for Beginners
- Increase Your Stakes Slowly - Firstly, start playing with small stakes. If you go in all guns blazing on your very first hand and try to win half a million there’s a good chance you’re going to leave the table with your tail between your legs. Respect the game and try to get an understanding of how it works. Blackjack is a fun game to play, our advice would be to play through a minimum of 50 hands on the lowest stake before you start increasing the size of your bet.
- Understand the Percentages - Obviously, the main aim of this game is to get to 21. Therefore, it’s extremely important that you fully understand the odds. For example, if you’re sitting on 18 and you choose to hit there’s a good chance that you’re going to go bust. However, if you’re sitting on 11 or less you literally can’t lose by taking one more hit. Do your research and don’t play blindly. It’ll pay off in the long term.
- Focus On Yourself - It’s easy to make rash decisions based on what other players are doing. For example, if somebody at the table raises the stakes significantly it might send a shiver down your spine. However, it doesn’t really matter what the players around you are doing. You’re playing against the dealer and nobody else. Always keep this in mind before you make any decisions. This is one of our golden rules in regards to blackjack.
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Blackjack Odds FAQs
What are the odds of winning blackjack?
There are many factors that will affected your chances of winning a hand of blackjack. Your hand, the dealer's hand - and the rules can all impact the outcome. See our full strategy guide above for more details.
Should I use a blackjack odds chart?
It is certainly a helpful tool to have - and we have a free one you can use above. However, we recommend a blackjack strategy chart that shows you the optimal strategic play for that hand. This will lead you to more fruitful results and reduce the house edge to its minimum.
Is a blackjack odds calculator useful?
In some situations - yes. But once again, a basic strategy chart is more useful as it gives you the best plays possible for what the dealer has.
Blackjack Odds At Casino
What is the blackjack games with the best odds?
Odds Of Winning In Blackjack
To find the game with the best odds, we want to look at blackjack games with the best house edge. Single deck games where the dealer stands on soft 17 boast a house edge of just 0.18%. See above for more info on house edge.